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HomeMotocrossChampionship Factors Percentages and the 85% Benchmark – PulpMX

Championship Factors Percentages and the 85% Benchmark – PulpMX


By 7 rounds of 450 Supercross in 2024, there have been 175 potential factors up for grabs and the present factors standing is:

Rider Factors by 7 Rounds 2024 Factors Share %
Jett Lawrence 135 77.14%
Cooper Webb 132 75.43%
Aaron Plessinger 128 73.14%
Chase Sexton 127 72.57%
Eli Tomac 122 69.71%
Jason Anderson 118 67.43%
Ken Roczen 116 66.29%

Why do I spotlight the proportion? Two causes. First, the distinction to final 12 months and secondly, what makes 85% a key benchmark.

In 2023, by 7 rounds, there have been 182 potential factors out there and the factors standings have been:

Rider Factors by 7 Rounds 2023 Factors Share %
Eli Tomac 160 87.91%
Cooper Webb 158 86.81%
Chase Sexton 155 85.16%
Jason Anderson 130 71.43%
Ken Roczen 122 67.03%
Aaron Plessinger 121 66.48%
Justin Barcia 113 62.09%

Large drop off for Tomac, and a fairly large drop off for Webb and Sexton evaluating 2023 to 2024 for these riders.

At this level final 12 months in 2023, it was fairly clear that it was a 3 man race with Tomac, Webb and Sexton main the best way – and so they have been on a reasonably historic tempo for 3 separate riders, all being above 85%…

Within the historical past of Premier Class Supercross over the complete season, right here is the factors proportion information:

Rank Rider Yr Rounds Factors Accessible Factors Factors % End
1 Jimmy Ellis 1975 4 100 100 100.00% 1st
2 Jeremy McGrath 1996 15 375 372 99.20% 1st
3 Ricky Carmichael 2001 16 400 392 98.00% 1st
4 James Stewart 2007 16 400 385 96.25% 1st
5 Pierre Karsmakers 1974 2 50 47 94.00% 1st
6 Rick Johnson 1986 12 300 280 93.33% 1st
7 Rick Johnson 1988 10 250 233 93.20% 1st
8 Jeremy McGrath 2000 16 400 372 93.00% 1st
9 Ryan Dungey 2016 17 425 391 92.00% 1st
10 Ryan Dungey 2015 17 425 390 91.76% 1st
11 Ricky Carmichael 2003 16 400 367 91.75% 1st
Ricky Carmichael 2005 16 400 367 91.75% 1st
13 Chad Reed 2003 16 400 360 90.00% 2nd
14 Jeremy McGrath 1993 16 400 358 89.50% 1st
15 Jeremy McGrath 1994 15 375 335 89.33% 1st
16 Jeremy McGrath 1999 16 400 356 89.00% 1st
Ricky Carmichael 2002 16 400 356 89.00% 1st
18 Chad Reed 2004 16 400 355 88.75% 1st
19 James Stewart 2009 17 425 377 88.71% 1st
20 Cooper Webb 2021 17 442 388 87.78% 1st
21 Chad Reed 2009 17 425 373 87.76% 2nd
22 Bob Hannah 1978 11 275 241 87.64% 1st
23 Ryan Villopoto 2013 17 425 371 87.29% 1st
24 Eli Tomac 2020 17 442 384 86.88% 1st
25 Bob Hannah 1977 10 250 217 86.80% 1st
26 Ryan Villopoto 2014 17 425 368 86.59% 1st
27 Kevin Windham 2004 16 400 346 86.50% 2nd
28 Mark Barnett 1981 12 300 259 86.33% 1st
29 Chad Reed 2008 17 425 365 85.88% 1st
30 Cooper Webb 2019 17 442 379 85.75% 1st
31 Jean-Michel Bayle 1991 18 450 385 85.56% 1st
32 Chad Reed 2005 16 400 342 85.50% 2nd
33 Ryan Dungey 2010 17 425 363 85.41% 1st
34 Jeremy McGrath 1995 15 375 320 85.33% 1st

Of the 34 situations above, there have been solely 4 situations of riders scoring above 85% and NOT successful the title. Those that didn’t win the title within the desk above are in daring.

Chad Reed 3 times in 2003, 2005 and 2009, and Kevin Windham in 2004. So mainly, it takes prime Chad Reed or Kevin Windham in his finest ever season to attain that prime of a proportion of factors and never win the title.

That is what makes that 2023 Tomac, Webb and Sexton stat on the time fairly unbelievable and reveals how laborious it’s to keep up that separation from the remainder of the sphere. When all three have been wholesome after spherical 14 final 12 months, solely Tomac had above 85%, with 86.54%. Then after all, accidents occurred to Webb and Tomac, and Sexton by no means even received again to 85%.

Not even Ricky Carmichael, James Stewart and Chad Reed reached 85% in 2006 once they have been method forward of the remainder of the sphere. And these riders shared the rostrum collectively in 10 of 16 rounds in 2006!

And once more, for 2024 to this point, we aren’t actually even shut with Jett Lawrence main at 77.14%. Even when Jett received the following three races, he would nonetheless be at 84.00%.

And under 85% is the important thing threshold the place we begin to see extra non champions:

Non Champions in daring.

Rank Rider Yr Spherical Factors Accessible Factors Factors % End
35 Ricky Carmichael 2006 16 400 16 84.50% 1st
36 Ryan Dungey 2017 17 425 17 84.47% 1st
37 David Vuillemin 2000 16 400 16 84.25% 2nd
38 Chase Sexton 2023 17 442 17 84.16% 1st
39 James Stewart 2006 16 400 16 84.00% 2nd
Chad Reed 2006 16 400 16 84.00% third
41 Chad Reed 2007 16 400 16 83.50% 2nd
42 Eli Tomac 2017 17 425 17 83.29% 2nd
43 Kevin Windham 2008 17 425 17 82.82% 2nd
44 Jeff Stanton 1992 16 400 16 82.75% 1st
45 Damon Bradshaw 1992 16 400 16 82.00% 2nd
Jeremy McGrath 2001 16 400 16 82.00% 2nd
47 Mike Bell 1980 17 425 17 81.88% 1st
48 Eli Tomac 2019 17 442 17 81.67% 2nd
49 Cooper Webb 2020 17 442 17 81.22% 2nd
Eli Tomac 2022 17 442 16 81.22% 1st
51 Jason Anderson 2018 17 442 17 80.54% 1st
52 Jeff Stanton 1989 15 375 15 80.53% 1st
53 Jeremy McGrath 1998 16 400 16 80.50% 1st
54 David Vuillemin 2002 16 400 15 80.25% 2nd
55 Ken Roczen 2020 17 442 17 80.09% third
56 Wealthy Thorwaldson 1974 2 50 3 80.00% 2nd
Jeff Ward 1987 14 350 14 80.00% 1st
Jean-Michel Bayle 1992 16 400 16 80.00% third
59 Ken Roczen 2021 17 442 17 79.86% 2nd
60 Ryan Villopoto 2011 17 425 16 79.53% 1st
Davi Millsaps 2013 17 425 17 79.53% 2nd
62 Ryan Dungey 2013 17 425 17 79.29% third
63 Marvin Musquin 2019 17 442 17 79.19% third
Jason Anderson 2022 17 442 17 79.19% 2nd
65 Johnny O’Mara 1984 17 425 16 78.82% 1st
66 Chad Reed 2011 17 425 17 78.59% 2nd
67 Marvin Musquin 2018 17 442 16 78.51% 2nd
68 Jeff Emig 1997 15 375 15 78.13% 1st
69 Pierre Karsmakers 1976 6 150 6 78.00% 2nd
70 Ken Roczen 2016 17 425 17 77.88% 2nd
71 Mike LaRocco 2004 16 400 16 77.50% third
72 Ryan Dungey 2011 17 425 17 77.18% third
73 Eli Tomac 2023 17 442 16 76.70% 2nd
74 Donnie Hansen 1982 12 300 11 76.67% 1st
75 Mike LaRocco 1994 15 375 15 76.53% 2nd

A few of these percentages are lowered by the champion not racing one of many previous couple of rounds on account of damage, akin to Ryan Villopoto in 2012 and Eli Tomac in 2022.

The bottom factors proportion ever for a champion is David Bailey in 1983, he scored 289 of 400 attainable factors for 72.25%.

Now clearly, the upper factors proportion, the extra prone to be the champion. Nevertheless, I’m highlighting this as for 2024, by 7 rounds, nobody is even at 80%, making this season fairly unpredictable. If the season have been to finish right this moment, Jett Lawrence would have the 73rd highest factors proportion for a season in Supercross historical past with 77.14%. It is a good signal for the championship competitiveness, until after all somebody goes on a run successful the vast majority of the remaining races. And given what we’ve got seen in first 7 rounds, I don’t see that taking place.

If we base somebody attending to 85% on the finish of the 12 months as that rider in all probability would be the champion (30/34 instances or 88.24% of the time they’re), then, its going to take somebody to make a leap ahead over everybody else. If nobody will get to 85%, then it’s anybody’s sport. This season has been wonderful to this point and I feel it should proceed to be.

Thanks for studying! Any questions, hit me up on Twitter or Instagram: @MXReference

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