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HomeTeslaElon Musk’s Master Plan Three — Tesla Owners of Silicon Valley

Elon Musk’s Master Plan Three — Tesla Owners of Silicon Valley



“Tesla’s audacious efforts on vertical integration are about to pay off. EVs far too expensive today. Tesla gave a number of drivers a 50% cost reduction for its next-gen platform. In a race to the bottom, we seriously question how the competition can keep up.” 

Adam Jonus, Morgan Stanley

The world switching to EVs represents 21% of the solution of Master Plan 3 for moving the Earth to a sustainable future. Right now, the global fleet of new and used vehicles is approximately 2B. Tesla estimates that the future needs of the global fleet will be fewer vehicles, with 1.4B EVs, including Robotaxis, playing a large part in reducing total vehicles on the road. Tesla broke out estimates of the global fleet in the chart below. When asked how many vehicle types Tesla thought they needed to produce to get to 20M EVs/year, Elon’s feeling was about ten segments/models. This plan requires ramping up Tesla’s existing offerings—Model X, Model S, Model Y, Model 3, and Semi—plus new vehicle models. New vehicles include the Cybertruck, which is expected this summer with volume production in 2024, and the Gen 3 Platform. GigaMexico announced the hope to commission a plant in 9.5 months or less from breaking ground. It normally takes at least a year to ramp to full-volume production after commissioning. 

Heat Pumps?

It is possible that Tesla gets into the heat pump market. Heat pumps represent 21% of the Master Plan 3 solution. Analysts have speculated it is a natural fit with Tesla Solar, Battery Storage, and EVs. Tesla CFO Zach Kirkhorn is focused on Tesla being disciplined about running parallel development projects. So it may be a future opportunity, while Tesla focuses on the low-hanging fruit of the core competency of EVs and battery storage to make the quickest possible change. Tesla already produces heat pumps for Tesla EVs. Heat pumps could replace current forms of heat, such as natural gas furnaces. Heat pumps work by transferring heat from outside to inside, or vice versa.

Air conditioners work as follows: a gas is compressed, which is heated in the process. That gas is run through a heat exchanger—like a radiator—that transfers the warm air into your home. The gas is cooled in the process, but it is still under high pressure. That pressure is released through an expansion valve and is cooled further in the process and is then run through another heat exchanger—this one is outside—which cools it even more. The gas is then run through the compressor again to repeat the process. The process is reversed to cool your home. 

Tesla hasn’t announced plans to produce heat pumps, but Elon Musk has speculated about heat pumps in the past. 

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